The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

• Marin County dominated August, with the median single-family home selling for $1,778,000, a 15.83% jump over last August, while Sonoma, Solano, and Napa Counties all posted modest year-over-year declines.
• Inventory has thinned dramatically, with 2,778 single-family homes for sale across the North Bay, down 29.62% year-over-year, and condo inventory off 23.30% to just 349 units.
• Single-family homes are selling faster than a year ago in three of four counties, led by Marin at 21 days on market, a 27.59% improvement, while every county's condo segment slowed.

Marin pulls away while the rest of the region cools

August produced a tale of two North Bays. Marin County had a standout month, with the median single-family home trading at $1,778,000, up 15.83% from $1,535,000 last August and up 1.6% from July. That is the strongest August reading Marin has posted in at least three years, and it caps a spring and summer stretch that peaked near $1,917,500 in April. Elsewhere, the picture softened. Sonoma County's median single-family price slipped to $793,000, down 4.46% year-over-year and down 4.92% from July's $834,000, marking its lowest monthly reading since late 2023 after a spring that held steady between $869,950 and $880,000. Solano County came in at $575,000, off 7.26% from last August and down 5.43% from July. Napa County actually improved month-over-month, rising 6.80% from July to $950,000, though that still represents a 3.06% decline compared to August 2025.

The condo market was similarly uneven. Marin condos edged up 0.81% year-over-year to $723,313, continuing a steady climb off the $524,000 low set in February. Sonoma condos rebounded to $454,998 from $422,500 in July but remain 5.86% below last August. Solano condos held near recent lows at $297,500, down 4.03% year-over-year, while Napa's small and notoriously volatile condo segment came in at $712,495, a 16.74% decline from last August.

Supply is disappearing faster than demand

The defining story of the North Bay this month is shrinking supply. Single-family inventory fell to 2,778 homes, a 12.3% drop from July's 3,167 and a striking 29.62% decline from the 3,947 homes available last August. Condo inventory told the same story, falling to 349 units from 429 in July and 455 a year ago, a 23.30% year-over-year contraction. For context, active single-family listings peaked above 4,100 in the summer of 2025 and have been running consistently below year-ago levels every month of 2026.

The pullback is coming from the supply side rather than from weakening demand. New single-family listings totaled 930 in August, down 17.84% from last August's 1,132, while new condo listings fell 26.92% to 95. Sales, meanwhile, are holding up well. Sellers closed 894 single-family homes in August, a 4.20% gain over last year, and condo sales rose 19.75% to 97 closings. With fewer homeowners choosing to list and buyers still transacting, the gap between supply and demand continues to narrow as the market moves into fall.

Marin buyers have less than a month to decide

Sales velocity improved across most of the region's single-family market. Marin County led with a median of 21 days on market, a 27.59% improvement over last August's 29 days and remarkably consistent with the 18 to 20 day readings of June and July. Solano County was close behind at 29 days, down 21.62% year-over-year and its fastest pace since spring. Sonoma County homes sold in 39 days, a 15.22% improvement over last August, though the trend has been drifting slower since April's 26 days. Napa County remained the region's slowest single-family market at 53 days, up 1.92% from last August and up from 43 days in July.

Condos moved in the opposite direction. Sonoma condos took 61 days to sell, up 48.78% from a year ago, while Solano condos needed 55 days, a 25% increase. Marin condos sold in 49 days, up 11.36% year-over-year, and Napa's condo median stretched to 100 days from 17 in July, a reminder of how thin monthly sample sizes can swing that segment. The overall message is clear: well-priced single-family homes are still moving briskly, but condo sellers need patience.

Sellers take control as supply tightens

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.

August brought a decisive tightening across the North Bay. Marin County's single-family market now sits at just 2 months of supply, down 54.55% from 4.4 months last August and the tightest reading in the past three years, placing it firmly in seller's territory. Solano County follows at 2.8 months, down 31.71% year-over-year and back below the balanced threshold after spending much of 2025 above it. Sonoma County is essentially balanced at 3.4 months, a 32% improvement from 5 months last August, and Napa County remains a buyers' market at 6.1 months, though that figure is down sharply from 9.1 months a year ago and represents its healthiest level since late 2024.

Condos are following the same trajectory with a lag. Marin condos tightened to 3.1 months from 5.3 last August, a 41.51% improvement that puts the segment essentially in balance. Sonoma condos sit at 3.7 months, down 33.93%, while Solano condos improved to 4.2 months from 5.8 and Napa condos eased to 6.6 months from 8.7. Taken together, the region has shifted meaningfully toward sellers over the past twelve months, and with new listings running well below last year's pace, that leverage looks likely to carry into the fall.

Local Lowdown Data