The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

• Single-family prices are holding roughly flat year over year, with Alameda County at $1,250,000 and Contra Costa County at $850,500, both easing modestly from their late-spring highs.
• Inventory has tightened meaningfully, with single-family listings down 18.75% and condo listings down 18.36% compared to September of last year.
• Single-family homes are selling faster than a year ago, while condos have slowed, with Alameda County condos averaging 37 days on market.

Prices drift lower into fall, but the year-over-year picture holds steady

September delivered the kind of seasonal cooling we typically expect as the market transitions out of summer, though the year-over-year comparisons remain reassuringly stable. In Alameda County, the median single-family home sold for $1,250,000, a 0.81% increase over the $1,240,000 recorded in September 2025 and a slight step down from $1,260,000 in August. That continues a gradual glide path from the May peak of $1,390,000, which has now given way to four consecutive monthly declines. Contra Costa County told a nearly identical story, with the median single-family home selling for $850,500 in September, essentially unchanged from the $850,000 posted a year earlier and down 1.68% from August's $865,000.

The condo market remains the more volatile of the two property types. Alameda County condos came in at a median of $560,000, up 2.28% year over year from $547,500 and holding most of the ground gained over the spring and summer, when prices climbed steadily from a January low of $515,000. Contra Costa County condos were the outlier, with the median sale price of $480,000 representing a 5.42% decline from $507,500 in September 2025. That said, the month was actually a strong rebound in sequential terms, climbing 7.88% from August's $444,950, which was the weakest reading of the year. Taken together, the condo segment is still finding its footing, but Alameda County's steadier trajectory suggests the broader recovery narrative remains intact.

Supply pulls back sharply from last year's levels

The inventory story is where the East Bay market looks meaningfully different than it did twelve months ago. Single-family homes for sale totaled 2,648 units in September, an 18.75% decline from the 3,259 units available in September 2025 and a 4.95% drop from August's 2,786. The condo market mirrored that pattern almost exactly, with 894 units for sale, down 18.36% from 1,095 a year ago and down 7.74% month over month.

Part of that tightening reflects sellers stepping back. New single-family listings came in at 1,831 for the month, 12.06% below the 2,082 brought to market last September, while new condo listings of 396 were down 12.58% from 453. Demand, meanwhile, has held up better than supply. Single-family closings of 1,274 were off just 6.67% year over year, and condo closings of 234 were down only 5.65%. When listings contract faster than sales, the result is a market where available homes get absorbed more quickly, and that is precisely the dynamic supporting prices even as the seasonal calendar works against them.

Single-family homes speed up while condos take their time

The tighter supply environment is showing up clearly in marketing times for detached homes. The average single-family home in Alameda County sold in 13 days in September, a 23.53% improvement over the 17 days recorded a year earlier and a two-day improvement from August. Contra Costa County homes averaged 19 days, down 17.39% from 23 days last September, though that figure has been drifting upward since the 13-day lows of the spring.

Condos are moving in the opposite direction. Alameda County condos averaged 37 days on market, a 12.12% increase over the 33 days posted last September and the slowest pace since the winter months. Contra Costa County condos averaged 36 days, up 9.09% year over year from 33 days. Both counties have seen condo marketing times lengthen steadily since the summer, which is a reminder that while condo pricing has stabilized, buyers in that segment still have the luxury of time in a way that detached-home buyers simply do not.

Detached homes stay firmly in sellers' territory as condos edge toward balance

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

The East Bay single-family market remains decisively a seller's market. Alameda County closed September with 2.0 months of supply, down 13.04% from the 2.3 months recorded a year ago, while Contra Costa County stood at 2.3 months, a 20.69% decline from 2.9 months last September. Both counties have now trended lower for two consecutive months after holding flat through midsummer, underscoring how little slack exists for buyers pursuing detached homes. The condo market still technically favors buyers, with Alameda County at 3.9 months and Contra Costa County also at 3.9 months, but both figures have improved dramatically from a year ago, down 29.09% and 11.36% respectively. Alameda County condos in particular have come a long way from the 5.5 months of supply recorded last September, and at current levels the segment is approaching genuinely balanced territory for the first time in well over a year.

Local Lowdown Data