The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

• Single-family median prices diverged again in August, with San Mateo County up nearly 8% year over year while Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties slipped modestly below last August's levels.
• Inventory tightened meaningfully, with 1,856 single-family homes for sale across the region, down 11.62% year over year, and condo listings falling 13.27% to 765.
• Single-family homes continue to move in roughly two weeks, and Santa Cruz County saw the sharpest speed-up, selling in 17 days versus 26 a year ago.
• Months of supply fell across most segments, with San Mateo County condos dropping into seller's market territory at 2.5 months.

San Mateo holds the high ground as its neighbors ease back

August brought the usual late-summer cooling to Silicon Valley pricing, but the year-over-year story remains split. San Mateo County continues to lead, with the median single-family home selling for $2,050,000, an increase of 7.89% over last August's $1,900,000. That figure is off the $2,210,000 peak set in May and down 3.35% from July, which is consistent with the seasonal fade we typically see as summer winds down, but the county has now spent six straight months above the $1.9 million mark.

Santa Clara County, by contrast, posted a median of $1,850,000, a 1.70% decline from last August and a third consecutive monthly step down from the $2,100,000 April reading. Santa Cruz County landed at $1,350,000, down 1.60% year over year and 1.82% from July, though still comfortably inside the narrow $1.2 million to $1.4 million band it has occupied all year.

The condo picture is noisier. San Mateo County condos were essentially flat year over year at $825,000, up just 0.24%, while Santa Clara County condos slid 6.16% to $685,000, continuing a soft stretch that has seen that market trade below $720,000 in four of the last five months. Santa Cruz County condos jumped to $800,000, up 16.11% year over year, but readers should treat that number with caution given the thin transaction counts and the wild swings this segment has shown in 2026, from $619,000 in July to $1,012,000 back in March.

Supply tightens even as sellers step back into the market

Inventory moved in a direction sellers like this month. There were 1,856 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley in August, down 2.78% from July's 1,909 and down 11.62% from the 2,100 available last August. That marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline from the May peak of 2,195, and it means available supply is thinner than it was at the same point in each of the two prior years.

Interestingly, this tightening is not coming from a lack of sellers. New single-family listings actually rose to 1,451, up 9.51% year over year and up slightly from July, suggesting homeowners are still willing to test the market. The squeeze is coming from the demand side being a bit quieter: 1,073 single-family homes sold in August, down 7.58% from last August and off 12.48% from July's 1,226. In other words, fewer closings and fewer homes on the shelf at the same time, a combination that keeps the market feeling tight without feeling frantic.

Condos tightened even faster. Just 765 units were listed for sale, an 11.76% drop from July and a 13.27% decline from last August's 882. New condo listings edged down 1.75% year over year to 336, and sales were essentially steady at 236, down 1.26%. After a year in which condo supply consistently ran near or above 900 units, August's reading is the lowest since December.

Two weeks or less across the single-family market

Speed remains the defining characteristic of the single-family segment. San Mateo County homes sold in an average of 12 days, a 14.29% improvement over the 14 days recorded last August and two days faster than July. Santa Clara County came in at 13 days, down 7.14% year over year, and the two counties have now traded places within a day or two of each other for most of 2026.

The most dramatic improvement was in Santa Cruz County, where homes averaged 17 days, a 34.62% reduction from last August's 26 days and a sharp acceleration from July's 24. That is a meaningful turnaround for a market that saw days on market balloon into the 40s over the winter.

Condos continue to require more patience. San Mateo County condos averaged 37 days, effectively unchanged from last August's 38 and five days quicker than July. Santa Clara County condos took 35 days, a 12.90% increase over last year and the slowest reading in that county since the January spike. Santa Cruz County condos averaged 36 days, which looks alarming next to last August's unusually quick 15 days, but it is actually a substantial improvement from the 70 days logged in July and the 96 days recorded in March.

Silicon Valley's sellers keep the upper hand heading into fall

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

By that measure, the single-family market across Silicon Valley remains firmly in sellers' hands. San Mateo County sits at just 1.2 months of supply, down 33.33% from the 1.8 months available last August and the lowest reading since December. Santa Clara County holds at 1.6 months, unchanged year over year and steady for three straight months, which is still deep seller's territory. Santa Cruz County, at 3.4 months, is the region's most balanced single-family market, though its supply has fallen 22.73% from last August's 4.4 months and it has hovered between 3.2 and 3.5 months since spring.

Condos tell a more nuanced story, and the headline this month is San Mateo County crossing the line. At 2.5 months of supply, down 34.21% from 3.8 months a year ago, San Mateo condos now qualify as a seller's market for the first time since late last year. Santa Clara County condos sit at 3.7 months, flat year over year but down from 4.3 in July, putting them just on the buyers' side of balanced. Santa Cruz County condos remain the most buyer-friendly segment in the region at 4.3 months, although that is a 23.21% improvement for sellers compared with last August's 5.6 months.

The takeaway heading into fall: single-family buyers should still expect to compete, move quickly, and come prepared, while condo shoppers in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties retain genuine negotiating room. Sellers in San Mateo County, in either property type, are operating from the strongest position in the region.

Local Lowdown Data