The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

The median prices rose across most of the Bay Area in September as lower mortgage rates brought more buyers and sellers back to the market. Typically, prices contract this time of year, highlighting the outsized effect mortgage rates have on the market.
Total inventory in the Bay Area increased, with the exception of the North Bay, as more sellers came to the market. However, we expect inventory to decline and the overall market to slow in the fourth quarter.
Months of Supply Inventory has remained below three months of supply for single-family homes, indicating a sellers’ market, with the exception of Napa and Santa Cruz, which favor buyers.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

The median prices rose month over month across most of the Bay Area

In the Bay Area, home prices haven’t been largely affected by rising mortgage rates after the initial period of price correction from April 2022 to January 2023. Low, but growing, inventory and high demand have more than offset the downward price pressure from higher mortgage rates. Year to date, in September, the median single-family home and condo prices rose across the Bay Area with the exception of single-family homes in Napa and condos in Sonoma, which are slightly lower. Year over year, prices increased most significantly for single-family homes in Silicon Valley and San Francisco. Prices typically peak in the summer months, so we don’t expect new all-time highs for the rest of this year. However, we do expect some minor price contraction in the fourth quarter.

High mortgage rates soften both supply and demand, but home buyers and sellers seemed to tolerate rates near 6% much more than around 7%. Now that rates are declining, sales could get a little boost, but the housing market typically slows in the fourth quarter of any year.

New listings rose in September in most of the Bay Area, causing inventory to increase

In most of the Bay Area, the housing market has looked progressively healthier with each passing month of 2024. We’re far enough into the year to know that inventory levels are about as good as we could’ve hoped in the North Bay, East Bay, and Silicon Valley. In 2023, single-family home inventory followed fairly typical seasonal trends, but at significantly depressed levels. Low inventory and fewer new listings slowed the market considerably last year. Even though sales volume this year was similar to last, far more new listings have come to the market, which has allowed inventory to grow. In San Francisco specifically, a significant amount of new listings tend to hit the market in January and September in any given year so new listings aren’t unexpected in September. Compared to this time last year, new listings are even and inventory is still down 10%.

Typically, inventory begins to increase in January or February, peaking in July or August before declining once again from the summer months to the winter. It’s looking like 2024 inventory, sales, and new listings will resemble historically seasonal patterns, and at more normal levels than last year. However, inventory still increased in September, which is atypical. Falling mortgage rates have brought buyers and sellers back to the market during the time of year the market tends to slow significantly.

Months of Supply Inventory indicated a sellers’ market in most of the Bay Area

Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The Bay Area markets tend to favor sellers, which is reflected in their low MSIs. Currently, MSI is below three months of supply (a sellers’ market) in every Bay Area county, except for single-family homes in Napa and Santa Cruz, which favor buyers.

Local Lowdown Data

Line chart comparing monthly North Bay single-family home prices by county from January 2021 to September 2024.

Line chart compares monthly median single-family home prices in Alameda and Contra Costa counties through September 2024.

Line chart comparing monthly single-family home prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties from 2021 to 2024.

Chart of San Francisco home prices, with September 2024 medians of $1.63 million for single-family homes and $1.13 million for condos.

Three-year monthly median condo prices in Marin, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma counties.

Chart of East Bay median condo prices, September 2024: Alameda $649,500 and Contra Costa $530,000.

Line chart of monthly Silicon Valley median condo prices by county, January 2021–September 2024.

North Bay single-family home market chart tracking inventory, new listings, and sales from September 2022 to September 2024.

Chart of East Bay single-family home inventory, with listings and sales from September 2022 to September 2024.

Chart comparing Silicon Valley single-family homes for sale, new listings, and sold homes from September 2022 to September 2024.

Chart of San Francisco single-family home inventory, new listings, and sales from September 2022 to September 2024.

Line chart comparing North Bay counties’ monthly days on market from September 2023 to September 2024.

Line chart comparing monthly days on market for Alameda and Contra Costa single-family homes.

Line chart comparing monthly single-family home days on market in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz.

San Francisco days on market, September 2023–September 2024: condos generally take longer to sell than single-family homes.

Line chart of North Bay single-family home inventory trends for Marin, Napa, Solano, and Sonoma, September 2023–September 2024.

Line chart comparing monthly single-family home inventory supply in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, September 2023–September 2024.

Line chart comparing months of single-family home supply in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz through September 2024.

San Francisco housing supply chart comparing monthly condo and single-family home inventory, September 2023–September 2024.

The Local Lowdown: October 2024

The Local Lowdown

The median prices rose month over month across most of the Bay Area

New listings rose in September in most of the Bay Area, causing inventory to increase

Months of Supply Inventory indicated a sellers’ market in most of the Bay Area

Local Lowdown Data

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The Local Lowdown: October 2024

The Local Lowdown

The median prices rose month over month across most of the Bay Area

New listings rose in September in most of the Bay Area, causing inventory to increase

Months of Supply Inventory indicated a sellers’ market in most of the Bay Area

Local Lowdown Data

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