The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

The Bay Area real estate market in June shows a clear bifurcation between San Francisco's surging prices and widespread declines in other regions' condo markets.
Inventory levels have reached local peaks across most regions and are beginning to decline, with the sharpest drawdowns occurring in the North Bay and San Francisco.
Despite inventory reductions, listings are spending significantly more time on the market throughout the Bay Area, with condos experiencing particularly dramatic increases in market time.
The market continues to strongly favor single-family homes over condos, with the condo market presenting substantial opportunities for buyers across all regions.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

San Francisco leads price appreciation while condo markets struggle regionwide

June showcased San Francisco's continued dominance in the Bay Area real estate market, with single-family home prices rising 4.42% year-over-year and condos surging an impressive 10.52% - marking over a year of consistent growth. This stands in stark contrast to the broader Bay Area, where condo markets are experiencing significant stress. The East Bay recorded its fifth consecutive month of year-over-year condo price declines, with condos down 11.41% in Alameda County and 8.25% in Contra Costa County. Silicon Valley's condo market also continued its downward trajectory for the third straight month, with Santa Clara County down 8.79%, San Mateo County declining 11.84%, and Santa Cruz County experiencing a dramatic 13.52% drop.

The North Bay showed the most stability in single-family homes, with Sonoma County up 2.92% and Napa County rising 5.60%, though Solano and Marin Counties saw declines of 5.23% and 5.35% respectively. Single-family homes in Silicon Valley demonstrated resilience with San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties posting gains of 3.21% and 7.18%, while only Santa Cruz County declined by 4.64%. The East Bay's single-family market showed mixed results with Contra Costa County managing a modest 1.99% increase while Alameda County continued its five-month decline.

Regional inventory trends reveal market consolidation

June marked a significant shift in inventory dynamics across the Bay Area, with most regions experiencing substantial month-over-month declines after reaching local peaks in May. The North Bay witnessed one of the sharpest inventory declines in recent history, with single-family home inventory falling 19.34% month-over-month (though still down only 7.09% year-over-year) and condo inventory dropping 19.76% month-over-month. San Francisco continued its multi-year inventory decline trend with single-family homes down 7.87% year-over-year and condos showing an even steeper 18.77% decline.

Silicon Valley and the East Bay appear to have reached their inventory peaks, with both regions seeing decreases in June despite maintaining significantly higher levels than last year. The East Bay still shows single-family inventory 20.05% higher year-over-year and condo inventory 13.15% higher, while Silicon Valley maintains 14.18% more single-family listings and 24.89% more condo listings than June 2024. The common thread across all regions is that inventory declines are being driven more by fewer new listings hitting the market rather than increased sales activity, suggesting seller hesitancy rather than buyer demand.

Days on market increase dramatically despite inventory declines

One of the most striking trends in June was the significant increase in days on market across all Bay Area regions, despite the substantial inventory declines. The North Bay saw the most consistent pattern with single-family homes spending 21.43% longer on market in Sonoma County, 25% longer in Marin County, 30.77% longer in Solano County, and 16.67% longer in Napa County year-over-year. Silicon Valley's condo market experienced the most dramatic increases, with Santa Cruz County condos spending 245.45% more time on market, San Mateo County condos up 116.67%, and Santa Clara County condos increasing 83.33%.

Even San Francisco, typically the Bay Area's fastest-moving market, saw single-family homes take 14 days on average (down 6.67% from last year) while condos remained flat at 31 days. The East Bay showed more modest but still significant increases of 25-35% more time on market year-over-year, though absolute numbers remained relatively quick with single-family homes selling in 15-17 days and condos in 25-31 days. This pattern suggests that while inventory is declining, buyer selectivity is increasing, creating a more deliberate purchasing environment.

Market dynamics increasingly favor property type over geography

The months of supply inventory metric reveals a consistent Bay Area-wide pattern where single-family homes remain in seller's market territory while condos have shifted decisively toward buyer's markets. San Francisco exemplifies this trend with single-family homes at just 1.5 months of supply (strong seller's market) while condos sit at 3.5 months (buyer's market). Silicon Valley shows San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties maintaining seller's markets for single-family homes at 1.9 and 1.7 months respectively, while all three Silicon Valley counties present buyer's markets for condos ranging from 3.4 to 5.5 months of supply.

The East Bay maintains its traditional split with single-family homes at 2.3 months in Alameda and 2.8 months in Contra Costa (seller's markets), while condos favor buyers with 4.7 and 3.9 months respectively. The North Bay shows the most variation, with Marin and Solano Counties approaching balanced markets for single-family homes at 2.8 and 2.9 months, while Sonoma (3.7 months) and Napa (7 months) favor buyers. However, all North Bay counties present buyer's markets for condos, with Napa County showing an extreme 8.1 months of condo supply. This pattern suggests that across the Bay Area, single-family homes retain their premium status and seller advantage, while the condo market presents increasingly attractive opportunities for buyers willing to navigate longer timelines and more inventory choices.

Local Lowdown Data

Line chart of East Bay condo days on market in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, June 2023–June 2025. Line chart comparing monthly days on market for Alameda and Contra Costa single-family homes, June 2023 to June 2025. East Bay condo inventory chart comparing monthly new and sold listings with for-sale listings, June 2023 to June 2025. East Bay single-family home inventory chart showing monthly new listings, sales, and homes for sale, June 2023–June 2025. Bar chart comparing year-over-year median condo price changes in Alameda and Contra Costa, July 2024–June 2025. Chart of monthly East Bay condo prices, June 2022–June 2025, comparing Alameda and Contra Costa. Line chart comparing monthly median single-family home prices in Alameda and Contra Costa, June 2022 to June 2025. Line chart of East Bay condo inventory: Alameda reaches about 5 months in April 2025; Contra Costa peaks near 4.2. Chart compares monthly single-family home supply in Alameda and Contra Costa counties from June 2023 to June 2025. Line chart of monthly North Bay condo days on market, June 2023–June 2025, across four counties. Line chart comparing North Bay single-family home days on market by county, June 2023–June 2025. North Bay single-family home inventory chart, June 2023–June 2025, showing new listings, sold listings, and homes for sale. Chart of North Bay condo price changes by county, July 2024–June 2025, with Napa’s February spike near 180%. Line chart of North Bay monthly median condo prices by county, June 2022–June 2025; Napa prices fluctuate sharply. Bar chart comparing year-over-year median single-family home price changes across four North Bay counties. Line chart of North Bay county home prices, June 2022–June 2025; Marin highest, Solano lowest. North Bay condo months of supply, June 2023–June 2025, by county; Napa peaks near nine months in spring 2025. Line chart compares monthly single-family home supply in Sonoma, Marin, Solano, and Napa from June 2023 to June 2025. Line chart comparing San Francisco single-family home and condo prices as a percentage of original price, June 2022–June 2025. Chart of San Francisco condo listings and sales from June 2023 to June 2025. San Francisco median price changes chart comparing single-family homes and condos from July 2024 to June 2025. Chart of San Francisco single-family home listings, with monthly new and sold listings and homes for sale, June 2023–June 2025. Line chart compares San Francisco condo and single-family home days on market, June 2023–June 2025. Chart comparing San Francisco condo and single-family home months of supply from June 2023 to June 2025. San Francisco monthly median prices, June 2022–June 2025: single-family homes in gray and condos in blue. Line chart comparing monthly condo days on market in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz from June 2023 to June 2025. Line chart comparing monthly days on market for single-family homes in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, June 2023–June 2025. Silicon Valley condo chart comparing monthly new listings, sold listings, and for-sale inventory from June 2023 to June 2025. Chart of Silicon Valley single-family home listings and inventory from June 2023 to June 2025. Line chart comparing monthly median condo prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, June 2022 to June 2025. Chart of year-over-year median single-family home price changes in three Silicon Valley counties, July 2024–June 2025. Chart of year-over-year condo median price changes in three Bay Area counties, July 2024–June 2025. Chart of monthly median single-family home prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, June 2022–June 2025. Line chart of monthly single-family home inventory supply in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, June 2023–June 2025. Line chart comparing condo months of supply in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz from June 2023 to June 2025.