In October, sales spiked, following the September surge in new listings. New listings nearly doubled from August to September, largely contributing to the 52% increase in sales from September to October. In San Francisco, a significant number of new listings tend to hit the market in January and September in any given year. Compared to this time last year, sales are up 18%, while inventory is down 13%.
Total inventory has trended lower essentially since 2010, but active listings fell precipitously from October 2020 to December 2021, as sales outpaced new listings, before stabilizing to a degree from January 2022 to the present at a depressed level. Low inventory and new listings, coupled with high mortgage rates, have led to a substantial drop in sales and a generally slower housing market. Typically, inventory begins to increase in January or February, peaking in July or August before declining once again from the summer months to the winter. In 2023, sales didn’t resemble the typical seasonal inventory peaks and valleys. It’s looking like 2024 inventory, sales, and new listings will follow historically seasonal patterns, albeit at a depressed level. Supply will remain tight until spring 2025 at the earliest.
Months of Supply Inventory in October 2024 indicated a sellers’ market for single-family homes and a buyers’ market for condos
Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The San Francisco housing market tends to favor sellers, which is reflected in its low MSI, at least for single-family homes. MSI has been below three months since October 2023 for single-family homes. From May to August, MSI declined meaningfully. In September, MSI jumped significantly higher as new listings spiked. However, in October, sales jumped and MSI fell. Currently, condo MSI indicates a buyers’ market, while single-family home MSI still implies a sellers’ market.
