The Local Lowdown: June 2023

Michelle Kim | June 1, 2023

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Active listings in the North Bay and Silicon Valley continued to rise in April for single-family homes, showing signs that inventory will follow normal seasonal trends, albeit at depressed levels. Inventory in the East Bay and San Francisco failed to grow substantially this year.
Home prices were up year to date through April 2023 across the Bay Area regions, showing that inventory and new listings can drive prices higher whether more or fewer are coming to market.
Months of Supply Inventory has declined significantly in 2023, and sellers are receiving a greater percentage of asking price, both of which highlight an increasingly competitive environment for buyers.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Home prices are rising rapidly across the Bay Area

The Bay Area is in an interesting situation. Prices in areas like the North Bay and Silicon Valley have increased considerably because more listings are coming to market, so buyers are better able to find the right home for them — but, prices are also increasing in the East Bay and San Francisco, because fewer homes are coming to market and the supply is tight. However, it’s clear that the North Bay and Silicon Valley are showing signs of healthier markets, evidenced by an increase in inventory, new listings, sales, and price.

Last year, single-family home prices peaked in the beginning of the year as buyers rushed to lock in a lower mortgage rate. The Fed announced rate hikes at the end of 2021 that would swiftly affect rates in 2022. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 2% in the first four months of 2022, crossing 5% for the first time since 2011. That 2% jump caused the monthly cost of financing to increase 27%, so buyers rightly rushed to the market. As rates rose higher, the market cooled and home prices fell in large part to accommodate the higher cost of a mortgage. Both supply and demand were lower than normal in the second half of 2022.

In 2023, demand started to rise again despite elevated mortgage rates, which was met by a high number of new listings in the North Bay and Silicon Valley and fewer new listings in the East Bay and San Francisco. Prices increased much higher in markets that saw more new listings. Across the Bay Area, inventory is still historically low and far more new homes could come to the market.

Inventory grew as new listings came to the market

Overall inventory has increased in the Bay Area, just not as high as we would prefer. The number of home sales is, in part, a function of the number of active listings. The North Bay and Silicon Valley proved this year that more new listings would drive up sales, but overall sales will be significantly lower relative to last year. New listings fell 39% compared to last year, so it’s not surprising that sales declined year over year as well. Even with higher interest rates, which only reduces the number of potential homebuyers, seasonal demand far outpaced available inventory. Over the past three months, sales in the Bay Area jumped 73% while new listings increased 48%. In a typical year, the percentage change in new listings would be the same or exceed the change in sales.

Buyer competition is ramping up with fewer listings coming to the market, and sellers are gaining negotiating power. In April 2023, the average seller received 3-5% more of list price as compared to January. Inventory will almost certainly remain historically low for the year and will likely only get more competitive in the summer months.

Months of Supply Inventory remains low, indicating a firm sellers’ market

Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The Bay Area markets tend to favor sellers, and the drop in MSI this year for both single-family homes and condos further emphasizes sellers’ increasing negotiating power.

Local Lowdown Data

Line chart comparing monthly median single-family home prices across four Bay Area regions, April 2021–April 2023. Chart of April 2023 single-family home prices and year-over-year changes across 11 counties. Chart of monthly Bay Area condo median prices by region, April 2021 to April 2023. Bar chart of April 2023 condo prices and year-over-year changes across 11 counties; Napa rose 20.3%. Chart of North Bay single-family home inventory, new listings, and sales from April 2021 to April 2023. Chart of East Bay single-family homes for sale, new listings, and sales from April 2021 to April 2023. Silicon Valley single-family home inventory, listings, and sales, April 2021–April 2023. San Francisco single-family home inventory chart showing for-sale, new-listing, and sold counts from 2021 to 2023. Line chart comparing days on market for single-family homes across four Bay Area regions, April 2022 to April 2023. April 2023 days on market by county for single-family homes and condos; Santa Cruz condos are highest at 99 days. Line chart comparing monthly single-family home inventory supply across four Greater Bay Area regions, April 2022–April 2023. April 2023 months of supply by county, comparing single-family homes and condos.