Although there was quite a bit of uncertainty coming into 2025, so far things have been going pretty well in the North Bay. Median sale prices have remained fairly static so far this year, which is great news for sellers! In the month of March, median sale prices in Sonoma and Solano counties were roughly flat, whereas Marin County saw a 9.32% year-over-year decrease, and Napa County saw a 10.40% increase! However, we might see prices begin to increase throughout the North Bay, as inventory might become an issue over the course of the next few months!
Inventory looks like it will continue to be an issue
As many of us know, in the real estate market, inventories tend to build throughout the first quarter, when there are fewer buyers in the market looking for a new home. This, of course, means that the month of March is typically a month where we see inventory build. However, this month we saw a month-over-month decrease of 14.28%! Additionally, we saw the number of new listings hitting the market drop by a considerable margin, as there were 20.78% fewer new listings in March 2025 than there were in March 2024. If we don’t see some new listings start to hit the market soon, we could start to see more bidding wars, as buyers fight for a limited supply of homes, resulting in an increase in the median sale price!
Despite falling inventories, homes aren’t selling any faster
If you were to hear that inventories are falling, while demand remains steady, you might assume that homes are selling faster. However, this isn’t the case in the North Bay. Despite lower inventory levels and fewer new listings, we saw the median home in Sonoma and Solano counties spend roughly 15% more time on the market than this time last year, and the median listing in Marin County spend the exact same amount of time on the market. However, in Napa County, homes are moving around 14% faster than they were around this time last year!
Sellers in Sonoma Marin, and Solano Counties gain bargaining power, while buyers retain the bargaining power in Napa County
The real estate market in California has historically averaged around three months' worth of inventory on the market at a given time. This means that whenever inventory levels drop below three months' worth of supply, an area is in a seller’s market. On the flip side, if inventory levels are above three months' worth of supply, an area is in a buyers’ market.
As inventories shrink throughout the North Bay, it’s no surprise that sellers are gaining back some of the bargaining power that they lost over the course of the past couple of months. At this point in time, there’s around 2.6 months’ worth of supply on the market in Sonoma County, 2.1 months in Marin County, and 2.3 months in Solano County. However, Napa County remains a buyers’ market, with roughly 5.6 months worth of inventory listed on the market right now!
