The Local Lowdown: March 2026

Michelle Kim | April 1, 2026

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

San Francisco continues to dominate, with single-family home prices up more than 21% year-over-year, while much of the North Bay saw notable price declines in February.
Inventory levels remain severely depressed across the entire Bay Area, with year-over-year declines ranging from 12% in Silicon Valley to nearly 48% in the North Bay.
Single-family homes are selling at an incredibly fast pace, with listings in Santa Clara County moving in just 8 days and San Francisco listings selling in just 12 days.
The Bay Area is overwhelmingly a seller's market heading into the spring selling season, though the condo market is offering buyers a bit more breathing room in certain counties.

San Francisco is surging while prices pull back in the North Bay

February brought a wide range of price action across the Bay Area, highlighting just how localized real estate trends can be. San Francisco led the way with a remarkable 21.41% year-over-year increase in single-family home median sale price, with the median home selling for $1,942,500. Condos in San Francisco also had an exceptional month, climbing 11.87% to $1,225,000. In the East Bay, Alameda County's median single-family home price returned to the $1,300,000 mark, essentially flat year-over-year, while Contra Costa County saw a modest 3.23% decline to $810,000.

Silicon Valley was a mixed bag, with Santa Clara County posting a slight 0.63% gain to $2,000,000, while San Mateo County dropped 8.24% to $1,950,000. The North Bay experienced the most widespread weakness, as Napa County single-family homes fell 20.86% to $840,500 and Marin County declined 5.74% to $1,602,500. Across the region, the condo market continued to struggle, with declines in most counties, though Contra Costa County was a notable exception, posting a 17.68% year-over-year increase.

The Bay Area's inventory crisis shows no signs of easing

Inventory levels across the Bay Area remain far below where they were a year ago, and the situation has only intensified as we head into the spring selling season. The North Bay is experiencing the most dramatic squeeze, with single-family home inventory down a staggering 47.88% year-over-year and condo inventory down 38.71%. San Francisco is not far behind, with single-family inventory down 37.45% and condo inventory down 38.81%, leaving fewer than 550 homes available for sale in the entire city.

The East Bay has seen single-family inventory decline by 21.24% and condo inventory drop by 14.40%. Silicon Valley rounds out the picture with single-family inventory down 12.11% and condo inventory down 7.05%. New listings are beginning to pick up in some areas as the spring market gets underway, but they remain well below last year's pace in most markets. This persistent shortage of available homes is keeping upward pressure on prices in many areas and creating a challenging environment for buyers who are ready to make a move.

Single-family homes are flying off the shelves, but the condo market is a different story

The pace of sales for single-family homes across the Bay Area is nothing short of remarkable. In Santa Clara County, the average home is selling in just 8 days, while San Mateo County homes are moving in 11 days. San Francisco single-family homes are selling in just 12 days, and East Bay listings are closing in under two weeks in both Alameda and Contra Costa Counties. These figures underscore just how competitive the single-family market remains. The condo market, however, continues to show signs of a much slower pace.

Santa Cruz County condos are taking an average of 84 days to sell, a staggering 546.15% increase compared to February 2025. San Mateo County condos are spending 64.29% more time on the market year-over-year, and Santa Clara County condos are up 21.43%. In the North Bay, Marin County condos saw days on market spike by 231.25% on a year-over-year basis. The divergence between single-family homes and condos remains one of the most defining characteristics of the current Bay Area market.

Sellers hold the cards as the spring market heats up

When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered a buyers' market.

The single-family home market is firmly in seller's territory across virtually the entire Bay Area. San Francisco sits at just 0.8 months of supply, while Santa Clara County and San Mateo County each have 1.1 months. Marin County has 1.2 months of supply, down an incredible 68.42% year-over-year. Alameda County sits at 1.4 months, Contra Costa County at 1.7 months, Sonoma County at 1.8 months, and Solano County at 2 months. Even Santa Cruz County, which has historically been more balanced, has tightened to just 2 months of supply. The condo market is a bit more balanced, with several counties hovering right around the three-month threshold. Alameda County has 3.3 months of condo supply, Contra Costa County has 3.2 months, and Sonoma County has 2.9 months. However, Napa County remains a buyer's market at 4 months of condo supply, and Santa Cruz County sits at 3.6 months. As we head deeper into the spring selling season, sellers across most of the Bay Area remain firmly in the driver's seat.