The Local Lowdown: March 2026

Michelle Kim | April 1, 2026

The Big Story

Quick Take:

Median home sale prices are virtually flat on a year-over-year basis, as the market has settled into a holding pattern despite lower mortgage rates.
Inventory levels remain slightly elevated compared to last year, but the gap continues to narrow.
Existing home sales have pulled back on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, signaling that buyers are still waiting on the sidelines.

Lower rates are finally making homeownership more affordable!

One of the biggest stories in the housing market right now is the continued decline in mortgage rates, and what that means for the average homebuyer's wallet. The average 30-year mortgage rate sat at 6.16% in January, representing a 10.85% year-over-year decline from the 6.91% we were seeing just a year ago. This decline in rates has had a direct impact on monthly payments, with the median monthly P&I payment coming in at $1,959 in January, down 7.90% from the $2,127 that the median homeowner was paying this time last year. That's roughly $168 per month in savings, which is great news for the average American.

However, despite the fact that rates have come down substantially, the median home sale price has remained remarkably stable, coming in at $396,800 in January. This represents just a 0.86% increase on a year-over-year basis, and a 2.05% decline from December. It seems like the market has found a bit of equilibrium, as lower rates are being offset by cautious buyers who aren't quite ready to jump back in just yet.

New listings are ticking up as we head into the spring

As we move out of the seasonally slow winter months, we're starting to see new listings pick up, which is a great sign for the market heading into the spring. In February, there were 362,180 new listings that hit the market, representing a 2.41% year-over-year increase and a 10.01% month-over-month increase. This uptick in new listings is encouraging, as it suggests that homeowners are starting to feel more comfortable putting their homes on the market. On the inventory side, there were 1,220,000 homes available for sale in January, which is up 3.39% on a year-over-year basis. While this is certainly a step in the right direction, it's worth noting that inventory levels are still well below the levels we need to see in order for the market to truly become balanced. That said, the combination of rising new listings and modestly higher inventory levels should give buyers a few more options to choose from as we head into the busier spring months.

Buyers are still taking their time on the sidelines

Despite the fact that mortgage rates have come down by nearly 11% on a year-over-year basis, buyers are still being cautious. In January, existing home sales came in at 3,910,000, representing a 4.40% decline on a year-over-year basis and an 8.43% decline from December. This tells us that while the affordability picture has improved quite a bit, many buyers are still waiting for rates to come down even further before they make their move. It's also worth considering that the seasonal slowdown plays a role here, as January is historically one of the slower months for home sales. As we move into the spring and summer, it'll be worth keeping a close eye on this metric to see if the lower rates and increasing inventory levels are enough to bring buyers off the sidelines.

A market that could go either way in the coming months

Right now, the national market is in an interesting position. Inventory levels are slightly higher than they were last year, but existing home sales have declined, which means that the supply of homes on the market is lasting a bit longer than it was at this time last year. With new listings beginning to pick up heading into the spring, and buyers still largely sitting on the sidelines, we could see inventory continue to build in the coming months. However, if mortgage rates continue to trend downward, that could be the catalyst that brings buyers back into the market in a big way. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!