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The Local Lowdown: August 2026

Michelle Kim  |  September 1, 2026

The Local Lowdown: August 2026

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:
  • July brought a widening gap across the region, with San Mateo County single-family prices up more than 10% year over year while Santa Clara County held nearly flat and Santa Cruz County slipped slightly.
  • Inventory continues to tighten meaningfully, with 1,849 single-family homes for sale in July, down 22.18% from a year ago and off another 5.28% from June.
  • Single-family homes are still trading in about two weeks in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties, though condo marketing times have stretched considerably, especially in Santa Cruz County.

San Mateo pulls ahead as the peninsula premium widens

The single-family market in Silicon Valley continued its two-track story in July. San Mateo County led the region with a median sale price of $2,123,000, a 10.57% jump from the $1,920,000 recorded a year ago, even as the figure eased about 1.3% from June's $2,150,000. That modest monthly dip is typical seasonal cooling rather than a reversal, particularly given that San Mateo has now printed medians above $2.1 million in five of the last six months. Santa Clara County, by contrast, has flattened out. Its July median of $1,900,000 is up just 1.06% year over year and marks the third consecutive monthly decline from May's $2,050,000. Santa Cruz County landed at $1,375,000, down a slight 1.47% from last July but up 1.85% from June, continuing the choppy month-to-month pattern that has defined that county for the past year.

The condo picture was even more scattered. San Mateo County condos posted a median of $840,000, an 8.88% year-over-year gain and a 5.66% bounce from June, the strongest reading since early 2025. Santa Clara County condos recovered to $711,000 after June's $661,500 low, a healthy monthly rebound but still a 7.06% decline from last July. Santa Cruz County condos told the opposite story, falling to $619,000 from $728,750 in June, a 20.13% drop year over year. With such thin transaction counts in that segment, single-month swings should be read with caution, but the broader trend there has clearly softened.

Fewer homes to choose from, and the gap keeps widening

Supply remains the defining feature of this market. There were 1,849 single-family homes for sale across Silicon Valley in July, down 22.18% from the 2,376 available last July and down another 5.28% from June's 1,952. That is the tightest July reading in the two-year record and continues the pattern of inventory peaking earlier and lower each spring. New listings came in at 1,434, off 4.59% year over year, while sold listings held essentially steady at 1,222 compared with 1,234 a year ago. In other words, demand has not fallen off, but sellers are simply not bringing as much product to market, and buyers are working through what does come available.

The condo market is following a similar path with a twist. There were 835 condos listed for sale in July, a 12.84% year-over-year decline and down from 895 in June. New condo listings slipped 4.85% to 373, but sold listings surged 23.44% to 258 from 209 a year ago. That combination of shrinking supply and stronger absorption is the most encouraging sign the condo segment has shown in months, and it helps explain the price rebounds in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties.

Two weeks for houses, two months for some condos

Speed of sale remains strong on the single-family side, though it is no longer accelerating. San Mateo County homes averaged 14 days on market in July, exactly matching last July, while Santa Clara County ticked up to 14 days from 13 a year ago, a 7.69% increase. Both counties have drifted up from their February and March lows of 10 and 8 days respectively, which is the normal summer rhythm. Santa Cruz County stands out, with homes averaging 25 days compared with 18 last July, a 38.89% increase and a sharp jump from June's 17 days.
Condos are where patience is required. San Mateo County condos averaged 42 days on market, up 40% from 30 days last July, while Santa Clara County condos reached 32 days versus 25 a year ago, a 28% increase. Santa Cruz County condos are the clear outlier at 70 days, up from 27 last July, an increase of roughly 159%. Sellers in the attached-housing segment, particularly in Santa Cruz County, should plan for a substantially longer runway than their single-family counterparts and price accordingly from day one.

Houses stay firmly in sellers' hands while condos tilt the other way

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

By that standard, the single-family market across Silicon Valley remains decisively in sellers' territory and has tightened further over the past year. San Mateo County sits at just 1.2 months of supply, down 40% from 2.0 months last July and the lowest July figure in the dataset. Santa Clara County holds at 1.6 months, down 11.11% year over year and unchanged from June. Santa Cruz County, historically the loosest of the three, has compressed to 3.4 months from 4.8 a year ago, a 29.17% decline that puts it right at the edge of balanced territory rather than the buyers' market it was last summer.

The condo segment offers a genuinely different experience. San Mateo County condos have tightened to 2.9 months of supply, down 29.27% from 4.1 last July and now technically in balanced-to-seller territory. Santa Clara County condos, however, sit at 4.1 months, up 5.13% year over year and the only measure in this report moving in buyers' favor. Santa Cruz County condos also register 4.1 months, though that is a substantial improvement from 6.6 months a year ago. The takeaway for July is straightforward: buyers pursuing a single-family home anywhere in the region should expect competition and come prepared, while those willing to consider a condo, especially in Santa Clara or Santa Cruz County, will find both more choice and more room to negotiate.

Local Lowdown Data

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