The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

August marked a turning point for Bay Area real estate, with single-family home prices rebounding in most regions while condo markets continue to struggle with volatility and declines.
Inventory levels are normalizing across the region after summer peaks, with San Francisco reaching some of the lowest supply levels ever recorded while other areas remain elevated year-over-year.
Despite inventory normalization, listings are spending significantly more time on market throughout most of the Bay Area, reflecting increased buyer selectivity.
Market dynamics strongly favor single-family homes over condos, with San Francisco becoming a dual seller's market while other regions maintain the traditional split between property types.

Single-family home prices rebound while condo markets remain volatile

August showcased a remarkable turnaround for Bay Area single-family home markets after months of uncertainty. Silicon Valley led the recovery with price appreciation across all counties for the first time in four months - San Mateo County surged 6.74%, Santa Cruz gained 5.54%, and Santa Clara increased 3.01% year-over-year. The East Bay also returned to positive territory for the first time in six months, with Alameda and Contra Costa Counties posting modest gains of 1.20% and 1.33% respectively. The North Bay showed strong performance in most areas, with Solano County up 4.17%, Marin County gaining 2.47%, and Sonoma County rising 1.29%, though Napa County experienced a significant 8.67% decline. San Francisco displayed unusual stability with single-family homes down just 1.38% and condos up a modest 0.74% - a stark contrast to its typical volatility. However, condo markets throughout the region continued to face headwinds, with Silicon Valley experiencing broad declines ranging from 3.64% in Santa Cruz to 5.20% in Santa Clara County. The East Bay's condo market remained mixed, with Contra Costa County up 2.04% but Alameda County down 7.41%. North Bay condos showed extreme volatility, with dramatic increases in Napa (29.76%), Marin (20.07%), and Sonoma (6.98%) Counties, while Solano County declined 11.43%.

Inventory normalization accelerates with San Francisco reaching historic lows

August marked a significant shift in Bay Area inventory dynamics, with most regions continuing the normalization process that began in the summer. San Francisco reached unprecedented territory with both single-family homes and condos achieving seller's market status - single-family inventory dropped to just 1.1 months of supply while condos fell to 2.8 months, representing the lowest levels ever recorded in the area. Single-family inventory declined 17.51% year-over-year, while condo inventory dropped 22.69%. Silicon Valley made a dramatic reversal, with single-family home inventory actually falling 4.04% below last year's levels for the first time in months, though condo inventory remained elevated at 16.77% above last year's levels - still a significant improvement from prior months. The North Bay showed the most balanced inventory picture, with single-family homes down just 0.73% year-over-year and condos up a modest 2.75%, indicating near-normalization. The East Bay, while still elevated, continued its downward trajectory with single-family inventory at 9.97% above last year and condos at 11.67% - substantial decreases from peak levels. Notably, most regions experienced fewer new listings hitting the market year-over-year, suggesting seller hesitancy rather than increased buyer absorption as the primary driver of inventory declines.

Days on market increase despite inventory improvements

One of August's most notable trends was the continued increase in time on market across most Bay Area regions, despite improving inventory conditions. The North Bay showed the most dramatic increases, with single-family homes spending 27.78% more time on the market in Sonoma County and approximately 20% longer in Solano and Napa Counties, though Marin County bucked the trend with a 6.45% decrease. The East Bay demonstrated significant variations by property type and county, with single-family homes spending 21.43% more time on market in Alameda County and 37.50% more in Contra Costa County, while condo market times showed mixed results - Alameda condos spent 58.33% more time on market while Contra Costa condos actually decreased by 10.34%. Silicon Valley maintained relatively quick movement for single-family homes despite percentage increases, with absolute times remaining at just 14 days in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties and 26 days in Santa Cruz County. San Francisco showed the most interesting pattern, with single-family homes remaining incredibly fast at just 15 days while condos increased to 50 days (up 6.38% year-over-year). These patterns suggest that while inventory levels are improving, buyer behavior has fundamentally shifted toward increased selectivity and deliberation.

Property type trumps geography in market dynamics

August reinforced the Bay Area's clear segmentation by property type rather than geographic location. San Francisco made headlines by achieving seller's market status for both single-family homes (1.1 months of supply) and condos (2.8 months of supply) - a rare occurrence that highlights the area's extreme inventory constraints. Silicon Valley maintained its competitive stance for single-family homes, with San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties at ultra-low 1.5 and 1.3 months respectively, while Santa Cruz County remained a buyer's market at 3.9 months. All Silicon Valley condo markets favored buyers, ranging from 3.2 months in Santa Clara to 5.5 months in Santa Cruz County. The East Bay preserved its traditional split with single-family homes strongly favoring sellers at 1.9 months in Alameda and 2.6 months in Contra Costa, while condos remained buyer-friendly at 4.4 and 4.2 months respectively. The North Bay showed the most variation, with Marin achieving perfect balance at 3.0 months for single-family homes, while Solano (3.3 months), Sonoma (3.9 months), and Napa (7.6 months) all favored buyers. North Bay condos uniformly favored buyers, with supply ranging from 4.0 months in Marin to 7.5 months in Napa County. This consistent pattern across the region suggests that single-family homes have retained their premium status and scarcity value, while condos present substantial opportunities for buyers willing to navigate longer timelines and increased inventory choices.

Local Lowdown Data

East Bay days-on-market line chart comparing Alameda and Contra Costa from August 2023 to August 2025. Chart comparing year-over-year East Bay condo price changes in Alameda and Contra Costa, September 2024–August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly condo days on market in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, August 2023–August 2025. Chart of East Bay single-family home listings, sales, and inventory from August 2023 to August 2025. East Bay condo inventory chart, showing monthly new and sold listings and for-sale listings from August 2023 to August 2025. East Bay median condo prices, August 2022–August 2025; Alameda remains above Contra Costa, with both lines fluctuating. Chart of year-over-year single-family home price changes in Alameda and Contra Costa, September 2024–August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly single-family home supply in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, August 2023–August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly East Bay single-family home prices in Alameda and Contra Costa, August 2022–August 2025. Line chart of East Bay condo inventory: Alameda and Contra Costa both rise to about four months of supply by August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly trailing-twelve-month condo days on market in Sonoma, Marin, Solano, and Napa, August 2023–August 2025. North Bay condo inventory chart showing monthly new listings, sold listings, and for-sale listings, August 2023–August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly days on market for single-family homes in Marin, Solano, and Napa, August 2023–August 2025. Bar chart comparing year-over-year median condo price changes in four North Bay counties, September 2024–August 2025. North Bay single-family home inventory and listings, monthly from August 2023 to August 2025. Chart of North Bay single-family home price changes by county, September 2024 to August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly median condo prices across four North Bay counties from August 2022 to August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly condo inventory supply across four North Bay counties, August 2023–August 2025. Line chart comparing months of single-family home supply in Sonoma, Marin, Solano, and Napa, August 2023–August 2025. Line chart comparing three years of monthly single-family home prices in Sonoma, Marin, Solano, and Napa counties. San Francisco year-over-year median price changes for single-family homes and condos, September 2024–August 2025. San Francisco condo inventory chart comparing new listings, sold listings, and homes for sale from August 2023 to August 2025. San Francisco chart of original-price percentages for single-family homes and condos, August 2022 to August 2025. San Francisco days-on-market chart comparing single-family homes and condos, August 2023 to August 2025. Chart comparing San Francisco monthly median prices for single-family homes and condos, August 2022–August 2025. San Francisco single-family home inventory chart comparing new listings, sold listings, and homes for sale, August 2023–August 2025. Chart of Silicon Valley condo inventory, showing new listings, sold listings, and for-sale counts from August 2023 to August 2025. Chart comparing monthly Silicon Valley single-family home listings, sales, and homes for sale from August 2023 to August 2025. Chart comparing year-over-year condo median price changes across San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz. Line chart comparing monthly median condo prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz from 2022 to 2025. Chart comparing monthly condo days on market in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties, August 2023–August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly days on market for single-family homes in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, August 2023–August 2025. Chart comparing single-family home median price changes across San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties. Line chart comparing monthly condo inventory in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz from August 2023 to August 2025. Line chart compares monthly single-family home supply in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, August 2023–August 2025. Line chart comparing monthly median single-family home prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz, August 2022–August 2025.