The Local Lowdown: February 2025

Michelle Kim | February 28, 2025

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Despite an incredibly strong year in terms of value appreciation, median sale prices in the month of January increased on a year-over-year basis in most of Silicon Valley.
Although a lot of new single family home inventory was added in Silicon Valley throughout January, total active inventory is still slightly trailing last year’s figures.
New listings continue to get snapped up incredibly quickly, as buyers are forced into fierce competition.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Single-family home prices continue to grow in the Silicon Valley

Much like most of the rest of the Bay Area, Silicon Valley seemed to be largely unaffected by the high mortgage rates that we saw throughout this year. In fact, almost every month in 2024 saw year-over-year growth in two or more counties. This trend has continued into January, with Santa Clara and Santa Cruz Counties experiencing 5.88% and 3.36% year-over-year increases in median sales prices, while San Mateo County saw a 2.44% decrease.

Although mortgage rates have ticked back up considerably after the dip we saw after the Fed rate cuts in the Fall, buyers in Silicon Valley do not seem to be scared of the higher cost of capital. If we see further rate cuts that lead to lower mortgage rates in 2025, Silicon Valley might be set for another explosion in terms of pricing!

Condo inventory begins to build in Silicon Valley

Although active inventory for single-family homes in Silicon Valley is roughly flat year-over-year, we are seeing inventory start to build in terms of condos, with active inventory increasing by 36.62% and new listings increasing by 45.2% on a year-over-year basis. Active condo inventory levels are currently sitting at a level we didn’t see until April of last year. This could mean that there might be some great buying opportunities ahead of us in the condo market!

A divergence in the time listings are spending on the market

We’re seeing an interesting divergence in terms of the amount of time new listings are spending on the market when comparing condos and single-family homes. SFH’s are being snapped up incredibly quickly, with the average new listing spending 14 days on the market in San Mateo, 12 days in Santa Clara, and 32 days in Santa Cruz. These numbers represent 36.36% and 20% year-over year declines in San Mateo and Santa Cruz, and no change in Santa Clara.

However, condos are spending quite a bit more time on the market, with condos spending about 12.9% and 6.45% more time on the market in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz, when compared to last year.

Sellers continue to have bargaining power in Silicon Valley

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a sellers’ market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

Given this information, the single family home market in Silicon Valley is most definitely a sellers’ market, as there are 1, 0.7, and 2.3 months of inventory on the market in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz counties, respectively. However, on the other hand, the condo market isn’t as one sided. San Mateo and Santa Clara have 2.2 and 2 months worth of inventory on the market, making them sellers’ markets. Whereas, Santa Cruz has 3.7 months worth of supply on the market, making it a buyers’ market!